The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
from Random House
Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.
Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson
Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More. Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.
Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but itÂ’s something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.
The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.
Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."
In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan.
The Chicago Manual of Style
from University Of Chicago Press
In the 1890s, a proofreader at the University of Chicago Press prepared a single sheet of typographic fundamentals intended as a guide for the University community. That sheet grew into a pamphlet, and the pamphlet grew into a book—the first edition of the Manual of Style, published in 1906. Now in its fifteenth edition, The Chicago Manual of Style—the essential reference for authors, editors, proofreaders, indexers, copywriters, designers, and publishers in any field—is more comprehensive and easier to use than ever before.
Those who work with words know how dramatically publishing has changed in the past decade, with technology now informing and influencing every stage of the writing and publishing process. In creating the fifteenth edition of the Manual, Chicago's renowned editorial staff drew on direct experience of these changes, as well as on the recommendations of the Manual's first advisory board, composed of a distinguished group of scholars, authors, and professionals from a wide range of publishing and business environments.
Every aspect of coverage has been examined and brought up to date—from publishing formats to editorial style and method, from documentation of electronic sources to book design and production, and everything in between. In addition to books, the Manual now also treats journals and electronic publications. All chapters are written for the electronic age, with advice on how to prepare and edit manuscripts online, handle copyright and permissions issues raised by technology, use new methods of preparing mathematical copy, and cite electronic and online sources.
A new chapter covers American English grammar and usage, outlining the grammatical structure of English, showing how to put words and phrases together to achieve clarity, and identifying common errors. The two chapters on documentation have been reorganized and updated: the first now describes the two main systems preferred by Chicago, and the second discusses specific elements and subject matter, with examples of both systems. Coverage of design and manufacturing has been streamlined to reflect what writers and editors need to know about current procedures. And, to make it easier to search for information, each numbered paragraph throughout the Manual is now introduced by a descriptive heading.
Clear, concise, and replete with commonsense advice, The Chicago Manual of Style, fifteenth edition, offers the wisdom of a hundred years of editorial practice while including a wealth of new topics and updated perspectives. For anyone who works with words, whether on a page or computer screen, this continues to be the one reference book you simply must have.
What's new in the Fifteenth Edition:
* Updated material throughout to reflect current style, technology, and professional practice
* Scope expanded to include journals and electronic publications
* Comprehensive new chapter on American English grammar and usage by Bryan A. Garner (author of A Dictionary of Modern American Usage)
* Updated and rewritten chapter on preparing mathematical copy
* Reorganized and updated chapters on documentation, including guidance on citing electronic sources
* Streamlined coverage of current design and production processes, with a glossary of key terms
* Descriptive headings on all numbered paragraphs for ease of reference
* New diagrams of the editing and production processes for both books and journals, keyed to chapter discussions
* New, expanded Web site with special tools and features for Manual users at www.chicagomanualofstyle.org.
The Library at Night
by Alberto Manguel
from Yale University Press
Inspired by the process of creating a library for his fifteenth-century home near the Loire, in France, Alberto Manguel, the acclaimed writer on books and reading, has taken up the subject of libraries. “Libraries,” he says, “have always seemed to me pleasantly mad places, and for as long as I can remember I’ve been seduced by their labyrinthine logic.” In this personal, deliberately unsystematic, and wide-ranging book, he offers a captivating meditation on the meaning of libraries.
Manguel, a guide of irrepressible enthusiasm, conducts a unique library tour that extends from his childhood bookshelves to the “complete” libraries of the Internet, from Ancient Egypt and Greece to the Arab world, from China and Rome to Google. He ponders the doomed library of Alexandria as well as the personal libraries of Charles Dickens, Jorge Luis Borges, and others. He recounts stories of people who have struggled against tyranny to preserve freedom of thought—the Polish librarian who smuggled books to safety as the Nazis began their destruction of Jewish libraries; the Afghani bookseller who kept his store open through decades of unrest. Oral “memory libraries” kept alive by prisoners, libraries of banned books, the imaginary library of Count Dracula, the library of books never written—Manguel illuminates the mysteries of libraries as no other writer could. With scores of wonderful images throughout, The Library at Night is a fascinating voyage through Manguel’s mind, memory, and vast knowledge of books and civilizations.
The Complete Wedding Planner & Organizer
by Elizabeth Lluch
from Wedding Solutions
A new title from America's top wedding experts, Elizabeth & Alex Lluch. The Complete Wedding Planner & Organizer provides the most comprehensive and up-to-date wedding planning information in a handy 3-ring binder designed to help brides stay organized and on top of their wedding plans. The binder includes a back cover pocket to store important documents, dividers to keep track of information, a 3-hole punch to easily add pages, and inspirational wedding photos.
1001 Movies You Must See Before You Die: 5th Anniversary Edition
from Barron's Educational Series
This special Fifth Anniversary Edition of the acclaimed film reference guide is packed with virtually everything movie lovers need to know about the films they simply must see. Stephen Jay Schneider and his team of writers have brought the book up to date by including the most memorable movies released during the past five years. Among their new additions are The Queen, The Lives of Others, Brokeback Mountain, and several more recent movies that have attracted worldwide attention. Covering more than a century of filmmaking and dating back to silent-era sensations such as Edwin S. Porter’s The Great Train Robbery and Chaplin’s The Gold Rush, this book describes musicals, dramas, screwball comedies, experimental “New Wave” films from 1950s and ’60s Italy and France, major films noir, classic westerns, action and adventure films, and even memorable documentaries. It lists each film’s director and cast, presents a plot summary and production notes, and cites interesting, often little-known facts relating to the film’s cast, storyline, and production. For students of cinema, discerning film buffs, DVD collectors, and readers who enjoy thumbing through and reminiscing over cherished screen moments, 1001 Movies You Must See Before You Die is the place to start reading. Filled with 800 movie still shots and actors’ photos.
Inside Reporting: A Practical Guide to the Craft of Journalism
by Tim Harrower
from McGraw-Hill Humanities/Social Sciences/Languages
This text does for reporting what Tim Harrower's The Newspaper Designer's Handbook has previously done for design: make it fun and accessible to newcomers. Harrower is an award-winning editor, designer and columnist who has previously taught at Portland State University and currently conducts journalism workshops. Inside Reporting emphasizes the basics but also provides a wealth of information on online reporting and packaging stories in more visual, interactive ways. It also includes more useful information on feature writing--from stories to reviews and column-writing--than any other text in the field.
A Writer's Resource (comb) with Student Access to Catalyst 2.0
by Elaine Maimon
from McGraw-Hill Humanities/Social Sciences/Languages
The second edition of A Writer's Resource draws on its authors' 20 years of research into writing in college and provides the most extensive technological support available, forming an indispensable resource for learning, writing, researching, and editing. The second edition features a stonger focus on visual rhetoric, new documentation flowcharts, a new chapter on multimedia assignments, enhanced coverage of note-taking and plagiarism, new online peer review utilities (as well as course management utilities for instructors), and more!
The Oxford Guide to Library Research
by Thomas Mann
from Oxford University Press, USA
With all of the new developments in information storage and retrieval, researchers today need a clear and comprehensive overview of the full range of their options, both online and offline, for finding the best information quickly. In this third edition of The Oxford Guide to Library Research, Thomas Mann maps out an array not just of important databases and print sources, but of several specific search techniques that can be applied profitably in any area of research. From academic resources to government documents to manuscripts in archives to business Web sites, Mann shows readers how best to exploit controlled subject headings, explains why browsing library shelves is still important in an online age, demonstrates how citation searching and related record searching produce results far beyond keyword inquiries, and offers practical tips on making personal contacts with knowledgeable people. Against the trendy but mistaken assumption that "everything" can be found on the Internet, Mann shows the lasting value of physical libraries and the unexpected power of traditional search mechanisms, while also providing the best overview of the new capabilities of computer indexing.
Throughout the book Mann enlivens his advice with real-world examples derived from his experience of having helped thousands of researchers, with interests in all subjects areas, over a quarter century. Along the way he provides striking demonstrations and powerful arguments against those theorists who have mistakenly announced the demise of print.
Essential reading for students, scholars, professional researchers, and laypersons, The Oxford Guide to Library Research offers a rich, inclusive overview of the information field, one that can save researchers countless hours of frustration in the search for the best sources on their topics.
Dictionary of Banking Terms
by Thomas P. Fitch
from Barron''s Educational Series
More than 3,000 terms are defined in this newly updated edition as they relate to banking, banking practices, laws, and regulations. Barron's Business Dictionaries are useful reference sources for business students as well as the general reader who is seeking advice and information on business matters.
Photojournalism, Sixth Edition: The Professionals' Approach
by Kenneth Kobre
from Focal Press
Photojournalism: A Professionals' Approach, 6th edition blends insightful interviews with professionals, practical experience, current equipment and camera technology, and high-impact photographs to create the definitive book on photojournalism. The DVD features footage of working professionals handling on-the-job challenges.
This revised edition features information on new laws affecting photojournalists, new trends in multimedia to keep skills competitive, and as the world grows smaller, a look back at some international history in the photography world. Updates throughout the a imaging chapter, feature pictures, picture editing, ethics, law and wartime censorship keep this book the bible it is known to be. More interviews and case studies with industry greats result in a stunning and dramatic showcase of the best of photojournalism.
What's new to this edition:
* Chapter on Multimedia introduces still photojournalists to reporting and sound gathering for multimedia and video reports for the Internet and television.
* Chapter on Video examines tools and techniques for shooting and storytelling in video.
* DVD includes a new hour-long documentary that takes readers inside Sports Illustrated to see how editors at the weekly magazine edit the world's greatest sports photos.
* Professor Kobré's blog provides links to multimedia and video pieces featured in this edition, and beyond: http://kenkobre.blog.bom
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